Presidential Auction 2004

Futures betting.

From Billmon's Whiskey Bar:

I've mentioned the Iowa Electronic Markets before. It's an over-the-counter futures market run out of the University of Iowa business school, in which people can trade contracts based on election results, Federal Reserve policy moves, and other nonfinancial events.

You can think of the IEM as an off track betting parlor for the political horse races -- an American alternative to those famous London betting shops that will make book on just about anything. It's what an earlier age would have called a "bucket shop."

Anyway, the market is currently trading contracts based on the fortunes of the major Democratic candidates (Kusinich and Sharpton are lumped together under a "rest of the field" contract.) Each contact pays a buck if the underlying candidate finishes in the roses, so the difference between the current price and $1 tells you what the market thinks of each candidate's chances.

At the moment (12:30 AM ET) the current bid for a Kerry contract is 83 cents -- versus a closing price of 78.3 cents Monday. The Edwards contract, meanwhile, is bid at 11 cents -- flat from Monday's close -- while the Clark contract has 1.8 cents bid. Dean isn't in much better shape: 2.9 cents bid.

Speaking of futures markets, remember this?








Boy, there sure wasn't much press on it. Just - Poindexter out. Move on.

You don't think they actually stopped doing that kind of stuff.

Do you?

....hey, do what you want....you will anyway.