Sunday, February 29, 2004

We're going to get him this year

Last year, Osama bin Laden predicted his own death in combat in 2004.
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Suppose he knew that the November election would intensify the hunt? That it would be the one last thing Double-face could try to hang his crown on?

Personally, I suspect that's exactly what Georgie thinks would help him, but I also suspect he is wrong. As I've said before, it would have to be timed perfectly so that the little spike he'll get from the flagwavers will carry over long enough to make a difference. There's just too much else out there right now, though, to bank on bin Laden's capture.

We are still not even sure al-Qaida was responsible for 9/11, as Bush insists.

After promising in 2002 to release proof of al-Qaida's guilt for 9/11, the administration never did. Much of the legal evidence cited so far by the U.S. against al-Qaida comes from a former fugitive member who embezzled its funds.

Interestingly, much of the "evidence" about Iraq came from another convicted embezzler, Ahmad Chalabi.

German courts recently determined the 9/11 plot was hatched in Hamburg, not Afghanistan, and could find no direct link to al-Qaida. Al-Qaida leaders certainly applauded 9/11 - after the fact - but may not have been actively involved in planning or finance.

Many of what the White House called "terrorist training camps" in Afghanistan were actually bases for groups fighting to liberate communist-ruled Uzbekistan, Kazakstan, and Tajikistan; Chinese-ruled Eastern Turkestan; Indian-ruled Kashmir; and the southern Philippines. Their members (some of whom may now be prisoners in Guantanamo) had nothing to do with 9/11. As for the Taliban, the U.S. supplied it with millions in aid until four months before 9/11.


But, while desperately attempting to stem any progress on the 9/11 investigation, and control the scope of the WMD commission, Georgie is going to pursue the Osama angle anyway. What else does he have?

Despite a lack of precise intelligence on Osama bin Laden's whereabouts, the United States has redeployed weapons and soldiers to Afghanistan.
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So just go shoot up some stuff somewhere over there.

[O]fficials cautioned that they still had not pinpointed bin Laden, his second-in-command, Ayman al Zawahri, or Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar, and on Friday they said the unusually public discussions of the operations are an attempt to flush out the 6-foot, 5-inch al Qaeda leader in the hope that UAVs, satellites or spies will spot him if he moves.

Look for a tall guy.

The officials also expressed skepticism about reports that intercepted satellite telephone conversations indicate the presence of al Qaeda members along the border.

"Bin Laden and the people who know where he is stopped yakking on sat phones more than five years ago," said one official. "If we can overhear it, it's probably disinformation."

..."That report [that he had been captured], as well as the suggestion that we're closing in on bin Laden and about to pounce are overstated," one military official said Saturday. "We're making a lot of progress, but it won't be over till it's over, and there's no telling when that'll be."

Trust me on this one...it won't be over then either.



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