Pipelineistan

In case you missed it...

Part 12a

The US energy strategy is being guided by the Baker report - commissioned by Vice President Dick Cheney in 2001. The report stresses "the concentration of resources in the Middle East Gulf region and the vulnerability of the global economy to domestic conditions in the key producer countries". So the big picture as far as Washington is concerned is to mould these "domestic conditions" by carrots and by the biggest sticks to be found anywhere. As Larry Everest analyzes it in his book Oil, Power and Empire (Common Courage Press), the Baker report says, for instance, that "more than 90 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are owned by countries, national oil companies and the Russian oil companies" - a substantial majority closed to foreign direct investment. So it comes as no surprise that the road map for what will happen in the next few years is Cheney's May 2001 energy report: the strategy is to to gain access, leverage and control of oil and gas from Colombia and Venezuela in South America to Iraq in the Middle East and the Caspian. Thus the American demonization of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, the fight against FARC in Colombia, the war against Iraq, the push for BTC [pipeline] in the Caspian, the courtship of Uzbek dictator Islam Karimov, etc.

Europe's thirst for oil until 2015 is expected to grow by only 1 million barrels a day. But Asia's is expected to grow by at least 10 million barrels a day. So the logic of the game dictates Pipelineistan should preferentially go East. The problem is this new golden oil road requires the longest pipelines in the world. The Hindu Kush and the Tian Shan mountains, for example, have to be bypassed. The shorter southern route has to go via either Iran or Afghanistan and Pakistan. Iran is anathema in Washington. So as Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey became the chosen ones for Pipelineistan going west, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the chosen ones for Pipelineistan going east.


Part 12b

More than two years after September 11, the Iraqi war has convinced quite a few Central Asian governments that American economic and strategic plans for the Caspian may not be in their best interest. China is now also a major player - and adding leverage to Central Asia in its relationship with the Americans. China is already the biggest trading partner for most of Central Asia.

And I am telling you, darlings, China is the world's next superpower. Any day now. And Putin will have Russia shaped up into a decent partner.

The BTC [pipeline] is not the only American weapon in Pipelineistan. American firms will build the AMBO Trans-Balkan pipeline from the Black Sea cutting across Bulgaria through Macedonia and Albania and to the Adriatic coast. One section of the pipeline runs north toward Central Europe. US corporations will control this oil flow.

Washington has never made any secret of its agenda to wrestle the Caucasus, the Caspian and Central Asia away from Russia. European customers for Russian oil and gas might be forced to rely on American giants for their supply, but the Russian counterpunch is already on: Putin has offered the European Union plenty of oil and nuclear protection in return for European investment - an offer Brussels simply cannot refuse.

A dreamer would see harmony between Russia, the US and China all engaged in a sensible exploitation of Central Asia's oil and gas and minerals. This would lead to economic development everywhere, and eventually more political freedom. It doesn't look like it's going to be this way. The perception in Islam, in the Chinese universe and also the Russian sphere is that America is using the "war on terror" to exclusively advance its own strategic oil and gas interests. This is a recipe for disaster - and ultimately war.

But we never hear anything about pipelines on the TV, do we?

....but hey, do what you want....you will anyway.