Monday, January 12, 2004

Double-face may have pushed Américans as far as they're willing to go

Venezuela's Chavez isn't the only one in the South who has a problem with Little Caeser. The following report is from The Progress Report.

Unilateralism In Latin America

According to the NYT, "[e]xpectations for great progress are low and friction on important proposals is high" for the Summit of the Americas , a gathering of the 34 democratic nations of the Americas, which kicks off today in Monterrey, Mexico. The Summit seeks to "examine steps the countries can take to achieve economic growth with equity , promote social development and strengthen democratic governance." The NYT last outlined the dimensions of the problem, reporting that "poverty has increased substantially " in Latin America since the last summit three years ago while the U.S. has lacked a coherent strategy for helping recovery in Brazil and Argentina.

FTAA PUSH RANKLES REGION: The Administration has been aggressively strong-arming Latin American countries to accept its version of a Free Trade Area of the America's deal without compromise, despite major objections from the region's largest countries – Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. The push comes even as public opinion both in the U.S. and Latin America has expressed solid reservations about the proposal. Here at home, a Zogby poll shows that Americans oppose the trade deal by 50%-31% margin. In South America, Reuters reports citizens "have a dismal opinion of President Bush against a backdrop of mistrust over U.S. aims in pushing" the FTAA , with only 12% rating his performance on Latin America as positive. In Brazil, 98% gave the Administration a negative mark, while in Mexico just 5% gave the President positive grades. Just over half of all respondents "believed the United States would benefit the most" from the FTAA, and in Brazil, that number was almost 75%.

ATTEMPT TO ISOLATE MIGHT EXACERBATE: Trade relations have been stalled since the Cancun WTO meetings when Brazil, with other developing countries, ended the negotiations at Cancun with an impasse on lowering U.S. and the European farm subsidies, focusing countries on bilateral agreements rather than maximizing effectiveness through multilateral efforts. There are serious concerns that the U.S. is forging ahead with free trade agreements with smaller countries like to the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) that don't have the power to negotiate in order to isolate Brazil and establish a precedent in negotiating the FTAA agreements.

WAR ON TERROR CONCERNS: The WSJ adds that " controversy over the U.S. war on terror once again threatens to overshadow President Bush's efforts to improve relations with Latin America… Early goals such as a hemisphere-wide free-trade pact have languished, as the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks focused U.S. attention on the Middle East… The U.S. invasion of Iraq was widely opposed by Latin American governments and people, and Mr. Bush has ranked among the least popular U.S. leaders ever in several public-opinion surveys in the region."

BROKEN COMMITMENT: President Bush campaigned in 2000 promising a new focus on relations with Mexico and Latin American nations. However, as Andres Oppenheimer of the Miami Herald points out, too often the Bush White House has acted as if "Latin America's problems are political, not economic, and there is not much Washington can do ." Three years of the White House ignoring the Americas has left Latin Americans wary. In June 2003, a poll showed that "69% of U.S. Hispanic voters believe that the president has not kept his promise to make Latin America one of his top foreign policy priorities." The Summit provides an opportunity for the U. S. to re-dedicate itself to gaining confidence and promoting growth and stability in the region.

CHILLY RECEPTION: President Bush will likely promote his new immigration initiative in Monterrey. This proposal, which offers no meaningful opportunity for undocumented workers to earn permanent U.S. residency or citizenship, is primarily geared toward businesses that illegally employ undocumented workers. The timing of the announcement is similar to Bush's sudden change of heart on development aid when he endorsed funding for the Millenium Challenge Account just a few days before last year's Monterrey summit. But signs are emerging that this new move may not go over quite as well as hoped. Mexican President Vicente Fox – who had to travel to Bangkok for his last audience with President Bush – called the plan a good first step, but said it "falls short of our expectations ." Raul Yzaguirre, president of the National Council of La Raza, which advocates for Hispanics in the U.S., said the proposal was "no more than a political gesture to earn the vote of the Hispanic community."


....but hey, do what you want....you will anyway.

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