Between Iraq and a hard place?

(Sorry. I even stole the obvious title from another site.)

Desperate to extricate himself from the weekly carnage well before the November election, Bush can neither deliver on his promise of democracy via direct elections nor impose his plan for an Iraqi assembly elected indirectly by caucuses.

If Bush delivers on his democracy promise, the Shi'ites with 60% of the population will be elected, and the country will break out in civil war. If he tries to water down Shi'ite representation with his plan for an assembly elected indirectly by caucuses, the so far peaceful Shi'ites are likely to join the violence.

If the Shi'ites become violent, the insurgency would be too large to be contained by our present occupying force. Moreover, the outbreak of a general rebellion in Iraq would spill over throughout the Middle East where unpopular secular rulers are sitting on a smoldering Islam. Our puppet in Pakistan would likely bite the dust. Israel would then face countervailing Muslim nukes.

...Pilots and troops are shunning the cash bonuses offered for reenlistments. The troops recognize a quagmire even if their neocon overlords cannot. The only source of troops is the draft.

A Shi'ite insurgency that brought back the draft would deprive Bush of reelection. A civil war with the prospect of a Kurdish state would bring in the Turks....The US could come dangerously close to military conflict with a NATO ally.

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Meanwhile, helicopters keep falling.

Of course, that's good for military contractors. Not so good for military personnel.

It was concern about these attacks that prompted Lt. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez, the senior American commander in Iraq, to go beyond the standard review after any crash and order last month a comprehensive study of all downings, Army officials said.

The goal was to detect more about the insurgents' techniques and weaponry, and possible weaknesses in the Americans' defensive countermeasures and tactics.  article

Possibly one weakness in defensive countermeasures and tactics is the training of Iraqis who then "quit" and take their training with them.

No, I do not have the answer. Well, it's too late for that, at least.

It reminds me of another story....

A group of teenaged boys were goofing around one night, and one of them grabbed onto the bumper of another's truck as the truck was pulling away. There came a point when the young man on the bumper was in a terrible situation - he could no longer keep up with the speed of the vehicle, but he was pulled into a forward-leaning position so that he also could not let go of the bumper. Pavement taste test was coming, no matter the choice.

....but hey, do what you want....you will anyway.