The result of the Philippines early withdrawal...

...has been more captures and threats. That's the obvious picture. It's an obvious, but far from unarguable conclusion to draw, because there is no way of knowing whether there would have been more captures and threats even had the Philippines not pulled out early. I think it's a sure bet there would have been.

There's also the conspiracy theory that says it's U.S. interests pretending to be militant kidnappers. And there's the guarantee premise: virtually the only possible outcome of the situation that we created.

From Empire Notes:

This rather unfortunate development is a predictable consequence of the Philippines' withdrawal in response to the threat to Angelo de la Cruz. It is most likely also true that the new international jihadi network, which nobody as yet has a good way to characterize, saw the Spanish election as validating their methods and as a victory to be repeated.

At the same time, the Spanish election and planned withdrawal and the Philippine withdrawal were the right things to do. It's the United States that repeatedly acts to maintain a context in which all choices are bad.