Monday, May 17, 2004

"Not very smart"

Old news, that.

Not quite out of the Iraq quagmire, the White House released the 500 page document, prepared by President Bush’s Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba and aimed to undermine and topple Castro's government. Bush authorized US $45 million dollars in the next two years to implement it.

The report stipulates that Cuban Americans will be limited on the remittances they send to relatives in the island, on the frequency of their visits to Cuba, and on the amount of funds allowed to spend while visiting them. This measure alone would cost the Cuban economy approximately US $1 billion dollars in lost revenue. US visas to academics and researchers will be restricted while visas to Cuban diplomats will be denied.

The White House will urge third countries to break ties with Havana, and to refrain from doing business or engaging in tourism with Cuba, thus effectively destabilizing another crucial source of revenue for the Cuban economy. While no country was mentioned by name, it is obvious that this measure affects Canada, one of the nations that maintain strong and profitable diplomatic, economic and tourist trade with the island. Theoretically, Bush's implementation of the sanctions would stop or curtail trade between Cuba and the US closest allies -- Canada, Spain, Italy, Great Britain. Not very smart.
  VHeadline article

Apparently not even the anti-Castro Cubans, that powerful group that wins or loses the state of Florida for a presidential contender, like this one.

As soon as Bush approved the report, the Democratic party denounced it as another meaningless political ploy in Bush’s presidential campaign. The Cuban Government condemned it as “blatant interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation,” and Castro’s political opposition, in Miami and in Cuba, attacked it on the grounds that it would make life more difficult for the dissidents, for the Miami relatives and for the people of Cuba.

...Similar reactions have taken place in Latin America. They reflect a turn around in the Hemisphere’s traditional ties with Washington. As nations got rid of military dictatorships and moved to democratic rule within the last 20 years, they comfortably settled for either liberal or left-of-centre governments. They also re-established diplomatic, trade, cultural, educational and tourist ties with Cuba, which Washington had forbidden during the trade embargo it has maintained against the island for the last 45 years.

Simultaneously Latin American states, which the United States traditionally considered their own “backyard,” started to keep Washington at arms’ length. Latin Americans increasingly opposed free trade as exploitative of Latin American workers, and increasingly voiced their dislike and distrust of the US foreign policy.

...In Mexico and elsewhere in Latin America there have been large demonstrations in support of Cuba and in opposition of the Cuban Commission report. For Latin America the latest White House salvo against Cuba is deja vu: a replay of humiliating US interventions for the last 150 years. Mexican President Vicente Fox illustrates the point. In spite of tense diplomatic relations between Cuba and Mexico, Fox made it clear last Friday that “we reject any US meddling” in Cuban affairs.

...Bush does not fare much better either among the 9 million Hispanic voters in the United States. Hispanics, who generally vote Democrat, also feel that Bush let them down since the last Presidential elections. Bush's promises of labor and immigration reforms never materialized. His new Cuban policy is likely to stir trouble among Hispanics at home.

But, he has a plan to combat that.

Last year the sale of American goods to Cuba exempted from the US embargo against the island amounted to US$600 million dollars. This is a modest amount compared to Canada's large investments in hotels, nickel mining, oil exploration, beer and travel. It is unlikely that US and Canadian corporations will stop doing business with Cuba as the Cuban Commission demands. Nor are the European nations about to close corporate shop in the island. Corporations are unwilling to lose billions in investments for political reasons. On the other hand U.S. citizens and Cuban Americans will likely continue to travel to Cuba as they did before the travel ban was imposed, by way of Canada or Mexico. And just as Cuban Americans did before Washington allowed them to send their remittances directly from US soil, the new prohibition will return them to forwarding their remittances as they used to, through Canada, Mexico. These aspects of the Cuban Commission report are not only difficult to implement but they are bound to infringe collateral damage on the reelection strategy of President Bush.

In Florida, the Commission's recommendations to tighten up the screws on Castro may backfire on Bush. The wealthy and politically powerful Cuban American population in the Sunshine State usually votes Republican. However, just as thousands of them started to reestablish normal links with friends and relatives in the island, Bush cuts them off with the Commission report.

...A terrible miscalculation by Bush. He has managed to annoy everyone, particularly his closest allies. As usual, wily old Castro is probably enjoying every minute of it.



Not very smart.

Here, let me help Doubledumb recoup:



....but hey, do what you want....you will anyway.