Sunday, August 01, 2004

The wave of power moves on

As it leaves the U.S., another step in the path to China is laid in place.

Bush administration officials call it the "new great game." It threatens to rival the war in Iraq as a source of transatlantic tension and poses a serious, if subtle, challenge to U.S. hegemony in the world's most dynamic and populated region.

The European Union is reviewing the arms embargo imposed on China after the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, and is likely to scrap it soon, widening Beijing's access to modern weaponry. Pentagon officials say France and Germany, which are spearheading the drive in the face of fierce U.S. opposition, hope to have the matter settled in time for a Sino-EU summit in December. "The Americans are laying very clear markers to warn the Europeans how they feel about this," says Banning Garrett, an Asia expert at the Washington-based Atlantic Council of the United States. "But there is a good chance the embargo will be lifted late this year."
  MSNBC article

This summer's unprecedented naval show off the China coast; China's current oil negotiations with Venezuela - to name a couple other recent steps. The signs are there, but I hope some idiot in the White House doesn't decide we can wage a preemptive war on China. Hoping for too much?

Bush administration officials say the embargo is crucial to "managing" China's evolution as a regional power. Removing it now, they argue, would reward an autocratic regime and imperil American forces should they be deployed in support of Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a breakaway province. Washington has even threatened "in the most emphatic manner" to deprive NATO allies of new defense technology if they drop the arms ban, says Cevasco.

The official EU position is that there is no move to end the embargo, but many of its leaders have made their intentions plain....

European leaders make no secret of the fact that China is their most effective counterweight to U.S. hegemony. EU External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten said recently that China has a "multipolar view of the world into which Europe fits rather well." Four days before Taiwan's March presidential elections, France held its first joint naval maneuvers with China. Umbach says China is playing Europe against America, forcing Washington to pay attention to EU-China ties "it has tended to overlook." The game is on; Washington must play.

Maybe pissing off France and Germany, and telling the rest of the world we are bad enough to take them all on single-handedly wasn't such a great idea after all.

....but hey, do what you want....you will anyway.

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