Georgia on Bob's mind....

...but off his plate for the moment.....

I've gathered a few bits of information on the delicate situation in Georgia in the aftermath of the ouster of Eduard Shevardnadze.

The US urged Moscow to withdraw its troops from Georgia and Moldova on Tuesday as it emerged that Donald Rumsfeld, US defence secretary, would visit the region on Friday.

Mr Rumsfeld's first stop is Tbilisi, where he will confirm the Bush administration's strong support for the country's new leadership...

...The conflict between theUS and Russia flared on Tuesday at the annual summit of the Organisation for Security and Co-operationin Europein Maastricht, where Russia asked for support for its plan for Moldova, while the US called on Russia to stick to an earlier promise to withdraw from Georgia and Moldova by the end of this year.

The US and others persuaded Moldova's president to reject the Russian plan, reportedly infuriating Russia.

Okay, stop for a minute. I am in way over my head here. But things are boiling up pretty good in the Caucasus region. Revolution is definitely in the air. Just take a second here for Moldova, and we'll go back to Georgia:

Up to 10,000 people have protested in the Moldovan capital Chisinau over plans to give more power to the breakaway republic of Transdniester.

It is part of a deal drawn up by Russia to try to bring peace to the region.

Opposition parties are vermently against the proposals which would make Transdniester a federation and reverse a commitment to withdraw Russian troops from the area.

Shouting down with dictatorship, down with communists and demanding the government resign, protestors from all over the country gathered in the capital to express their anger over the peace plan.

Okay, back to Georgia, where Nino Burdzhanadze has taken the leadership role on an interim basis until elections can be held....

"I want to begin to build new relations...not on the basis of the syndrome of 'big brother' that Russia had during its imperial past," Reuters quoted her as saying. Georgia's leading presidential candidate, Mikheil Saakashvili, has taken a more conciliatory line.

In a commentary published in the FT on Tuesday, he described Russia as "for years Georgia's closest partner".  article

Now that's interesting to me. Saakashvili is reported to be essentially a U.S. choice. And from what I've read, Russia and Georgia have had a somewhat precarious relationship. Perhaps Saakashvili is simply playing his hand close to his chest.

MAASTRICHT, Dec: Georgia's interim President Nino Burdzhanadze accused Russia on Monday of undermining her country's independence by holding talks with leaders from three of its restive regions last week.

...Leaders from South Ossetia and Abkhazia-which broke free of Georgian control more than a decade ago -and Adzhara-which has never espoused outright separatism-met Russian officials in Moscow last week, seriously irritating Tbilisi.

"Our Russian colleagues should also understand that actions undermining Georgian sovereignty and territoria lintegrity similar to those we witnessed during the last week in Moscow ruin all positive messages and put us in an avoidable confrontational position."  article

Georgia's new interim leader Monday defied the Kremlin in her first speech, pledging to seek full membership in the European Union and NATO.

...Russia's reaction to Burzhanadze's comments is not yet clear.  article

This business about joining the EU and NATO is mentioned in a couple articles I read, and both indicated that the idea is not particularly well received by either Russia or, in one article, Italy.

Georgia's acting President, Nino Burjanadze, has called for Russia to immediately withdraw all of its troops from her country.

She says the former Soviet republic has earned the right to be integrated into Europe, and doesn't want Moscow meddling in its affairs.

Our correspondent in Moscow, Monica Attard, says the Kremlin isn't likely to be happy about the acting Georgian president's comments.

They come after a summit last week in Moscow called by the Russian foreign minister with the leaders of several of Georgia's breakaway regions.

Ms Burjanadze told a meeting of the 55-nation organisation of security and co-operation in Europe that the Moscow summit was an attempt by Russia to undermine Georgia's sovereignty.

She said it had ruined all positive messages by Russia when it helped the Georgian opposition oust the former President Eduard Shevardnadze.

She now wants Russia to close down its remaining military bases in Georgia immediately.  article

She and Colin Powell.

The US may be tied down in Iraq, but it has a stake in Georgia as a bulwark against Russia and to protect the $2.9 billion Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipe line that will run from Baku in Azerbaijan through Georgia to a new terminal at Ceyhan on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. It is now under construction and financed by Western oil companies. This pipeline will counter the present Russia monopoly of oil transport from the Caspian basin to the West.

...After the resignation, Moscow hosted leaders opposed to Tbilisi for talks. An ethnic Georgian, [leader of the Muslim enclave of Adzharia, Aslan Abashidze,] said that he has never pursued a policy of outright independence. But he has denounced Saakashvili's "aggressive attitude" toward Adzharia and refuses to say whether his Revival Party, and his province, will take part in the January 4 elections. Also at the Moscow meeting with Abashidze were the leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, whose break from Georgia is widely blamed on Russian backing.

...The US has been training Georgia's special forces since mid-2002, and their defection, led by their commander Georgi Shengilia, to the opposition played a decisive role in forcing Shevardnadze to quit, according to Janes.com.   article

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell has called on the international community to ensure the territorial integrity of the former Soviet republic of Georgia.

Mr. Powell made the appeal in an address Tuesday to an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe foreign ministers' meeting in the Netherlands.

...Georgian voters will be able to choose from at least 13 presidential candidates when they go to the polls January fourth. A twice-extended period for registrations has now closed.

The Central Elections Commission Tuesday recommended January 25 as the date for new parliamentary elections.

The most prominent candidates registered by Tuesday's deadline were Mikhail Saakashvili, one of the leaders of the protests that forced the resignation of former president Eduard Shevardnadze, and former West Georgian presidential representative Teimuraz Shashiashvili.  article

The triumvirate at the helm of Georgia’s Revolution of Roses is promising to overhaul state structures to "provide government by the people, and government for the people." However, a large segment of Georgian society, not just adherents of the old regime, harbors doubts about the new leadership’s methods and goals. Indeed, domestic tension is rapidly rising in Georgia, and some security officials are now voicing concern about the possibility of "dynamic chaos" in the country.  article

Georgia has a delicate situation in that it is home to several separatist groups who have wanted to pull away in the past. According to the articles I've read (and none have been in depth analyses), Putin is being accused of fomenting unrest among them again at a recently held meeting with their top representatives. The whole area around Georgia has a history of factional fighting, much like the entire Middle East. If things aren't handled just right, or if some of these factions are stirred up, things could become very messy very quickly.

Expect the U.S. to keep its hands in, as we have an interest in Georgia as a corridor for moving oil.

There's a lengthy complex article dealing with all this from a Lyndon LaRouche publication, which discusses all the characters involved, including names you know like James Baker III, the Carlyle Group and George Soros (of whom it is particularly critical). LaRouche is something of a scary sort to me - what with his youth movement and all, and coincidentally in his article he claims Soros backed and trained masses of youth for the revolution in Georgia. That could be true, but I never know what to believe from LaRouche, and I tend to stay away from his writings. From what I can gather, he was a radical socialist in the 60s and is now pretty much just radical. And for all I know, he may have a personal axe to grind with Soros, who, for all appearances, seems to be a highly successful (billionaire) philanthropic populist. The one thing that I found intriguing in his article is that it talks about the drug trade, which may tie the U.S. into the region for more than just the oil transport.

At any rate, if you want to read the LaRouche article, it's here.

And of course, there is the post-9/11 importance of the issue of the Muslim populations.

The EU has pledged funds and food to help stabilize the new government. I haven't seen anything yet that either Russia or the U.S. have offered anything other than talk.

Reports are inconsistent as to the date of the presidential election, but all agree on the month of January.

So, now you know everything I know. Or, as Herr Rumsfiend might say, there are things that are known and things that are not known, there are things that are not knowable, and there are known unknowns. And maybe we don't know what we think we know.

And don't forget the unknown unknowns.

....but hey, do what you want....you will anyway.