Juan Cole discusses Saddam's trial (not likely to be public afer all - surprise!) and the Kurds' demands

Juan Cole discusses Saddam's trial (not likely to be public afer all - surprise!) and the Kurds' demands

Saddam's trial is unlikely to be public, according to Iyad Alawi, member of the Interim Governing Council and head of the Iraqi National Accord (mainly ex-Baathist officers who cooperated in 1990s CIA plots against Saddam). Alawi made the remarks in an interview with the London-based al-Hayat newspaper. He said there would probably be no public trial because "it is possible that he will mention names of states or persons to whom he gave money . . ." Asked if Saddam had admitted to smuggling money abroad, Alawi replied, "He has begun to admit it. He has confessed to important things." [Saddam is thought to have squirreled $30 bn. or more away in secret accounts overseas.]

Now, I know that you are probably having a difficult time believing the trial wouldn't be public. And of course, these IGC people all seem to have an opinion that they don't hesitate to voice.

Like we ever figured that Saddam would get to a public trial. Some don't even think he'll get as far as any trial - public or not. He may be getting the assurance that, in return for certain information, he will get a public trial, but would he know his captors better than to believe that? I think so.

I think we're being fed whatever information they think sounds good. I'm sure I don't know the angles. But that report that Saddam threatened to reveal embarrassing information if his captors continued to pressure him...I have to ask myself: why would he be "threatening" to reveal embarrassing information? Who's he going to reveal it to? I mean, if the CIA is holding and interrogating him in secret. Wouldn't a threat under those circumstances be like assuring yourself that you'd never get a public trial? What kind of threat could that be? He must surely know that the CIA doesn't play by any particular rules. And, hey, anything could happen, right Lee*?

I think the most likely thing going on, if Mr. Hussein is still with us in the land of the living, is that he is trying to negotiate himself to some position somewhere, and the CIA is trying to play him along on that in order to get as much information out of him as they can, and weighing whether he can be of any further use to them alive. (They might both be figuring a way to repay Georgie Double-face for their respective insults. That would be an interesting twist.)

Now where are all those Saddam body doubles? They ought to be good for some future plot.

Cole concludes:

I found Alawi's remarks chilling. The case against Saddam appears likely to proceed as a closed Star Chamber. Alawi, among those in charge of crafting the case, is a plaintiff himself and seemed to imply that he might be involved in a personal injury suit against the former regime! And, Alawi seems to be trying to hold the information that might come out in the trial over the heads of the Jordanian and other regional governments, as a kind of blackmail. Well, at least Rummy won't have to worry about Saddam going on and on about their close friendship back in the day, on Arab satellite television. Ooops. That's probably one reason the Bush administration announced with such alacrity that Saddam would be tried in Iraq.

As regards the Kurds' demands:

The two most prominent Kurdish leaders are making a full court press for an Iraqi Kurdistan to be enshrined in law before the American civil administration decamps on July 1.

Massoud Barzani, head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, has called for a revision of the November 15, 2003, accord between the Interim Governing Council and the United States, saying, "The November 15 accord must be revised and 'Kurdish rights' within an Iraqi federation must be mentioned."

...Laith Kubba, head of the Iraqi National Grouping in Washington DC [says Washington] will tell the Kurds "no."

The question is whether the Kurds will take "no" for an answer. Barzani's reference to the role of the Peshmerga or Kurdish militias in liberating northern Iraq can also be read as a veiled threat to the IGC. The Kurdish areas have been relatively quiet militarily. If Washington quashes the hopes for a new sort of Iraqi Kurdistan, they may get more dangerous quickly.  article

Not to mention that, if they really were instrumental in Saddam's "capture", they will have been led to believe they have some payback coming. I wonder if the fact that these demands are being made now, after a November 15 accord was already established gives weight to the claim that they did in fact have Saddam and arranged to hand him over to the Americans. Now they have "requests".

Of course, if so, they forgot who they were negotiating with.

In a follow-up post (the one I lifted), Cole notes that this development, along with the Pentagon's halting of the awarding of contracts, spells problems for having an Iraqi government in place by summer. I would think that may ultimately be the biggest bargaining chip the Kurds have.

But who knows what surprises are around the corner? We seem to get plenty of them these days.

Stay tuned.

*Courtesy Rev. Day-Bu at Re:Zine