Juan Cole examines the numbers.
Some of the reporting takes the spike in deaths in August as a sign that Iraqi security forces are not prepared to maintain security in the wake of the cessation of American patrols in urban areas. I find this line of reasoning baffling and, to say the least, premature. One month doesn't make for a trend. In fact, in the month after the US troops stopped routine patrols, both deaths and attacks fell by one-third. And if we average together the two months since the US patrols stopped, the average monthly death toll was 340 or so, less than either June or April when the US was in charge. Indeed, the US was in charge in June of 2008, when the last spike as big as August's had occurred. Indeed, the US was in charge in March of 2008, when nearly 1,000 people were killed. How is it then logical to say that the Iraqi military is doing a worse job than had the US?[...]
The solution to this mess isn't more American military intervention.
....but hey, do what you want....you will anyway.
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