Billmon post on the London attacks

Juan Cole has noticed something odd about the communique from the alleged perpetrators of the London bombing, Qaida al-Jihad in Europe: It includes a not-so-veiled appeal to Arab nationalism as well as to Islamic fundamentalism.

This may be nothing more than a blunder by a gang of Bin Ladin wannabes who know a hell of a lot more about kiling innocent people with explosives than they do about the theology of the movement they claim to represent. But it could also be a sign that the tactical alliance between secular nationalists and religious fanatics formed to fight the Americans in Iraq is now being mirrored elsewhere – or, alternatively, that the jihadis now operating under the Al Qaeda brand hope to mirror it elsewhere, even if it means abandoning the doctrinal purity of the movement's founders.

  Billmon post

Or, it could be a crude CIA (or other Machiavelli Ledeen inspired) gambit meant to look like an Islamic jihad event to the average Westerner unschooled in Islamic or Arabic ways, while imprinting on those average unschooled Western minds an inseparable connection between Islamic jihadis and Arabs in general. Or even the same gambit, but used by the Islamic jihadists in order to quicken the conflict between Christians and Muslims. (But maybe that's essentially the same thing Billmon says in his last point.)

That’s why finding an appeal to Arabism in a communiqué from an alleged Al Qaeda offshoot is so strange. It’s as if the KKK started quoting Malcolm X to encourage African Americans to rise up against the federal government. (Not a precise analogy, but I think you get my point.)

In his Salon article on the London bombing, Juan Cole suggested this ideological faux pas probably reflects the youth and inexperience of the London bombers.

Perhaps. But isn't it just as likely that we're dealing with CIA/FBI assets or agents? (Recall that some of the supposed Muslim men involved in the 9/11 strangeness and housed by the FBI were said to be partying and drinking alcohol.) Of course, that doesn't preclude them from being young and inexperienced Londoners.

It could also mean, of course, that the communiqué is a fake, even though the venue (a well-known jihadist web site) and the MO of the attack itself both argue for its authenticity. (Some analysts have also cited a mistake in a Koranic passage quoted by the alleged bombers. Cole says sees no such error, and that in any case it wouldn’t be surprising for a group of diaspora Arabs – who probably aren’t religiously trained – to get their Koranic verses a little wrong.)

Yeah, and that doesn't preclude them from working for the CIA or, what is it - TF 121?

[If] Al Qaeda in Europe (whoever they may be) is now willing to put Arabism side by side with Islamic fundamentalism, and tailor its appeals accordingly, it may indicate that the nature of the movement, and the threat it poses, are both changing.

And then again, it would obviously benefit Israel and U.S. designs on controlling the Middle East if Americans and Brits could cement in their minds an interchangeable picture of Islamic fundamentalism and Arabism. (I think it's already pretty well done here in Red America.)

Many analysts have noted the transformation of Al Qaeda from an organization to a movement – that is, from a top-down, centrally directed terrorist group to a decentralized “franchise” operation, in which local operators like Abu Zarqawi and the Madrid bombers make their own plans and pursue their own tactical objectives.

Hmmm. I'm not nearly so certain as Billmon that the Madrid bombers' objectives were any different than those of the London bombers or the World Trade Tower bombers.

But what hasn’t gotten as much attention is the possibility that Al Qaeda is also undergoing an ideological evolution – one that might enable it to attract a wider spectrum of Arabs and Muslims to its cause.

And, let me not belabor the point, but perhaps we are helping by our presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, a point which Billmon does bring up.

Thanks in large part to the invasion and occupation of Iraq – which has become a rallying cry for Arab nationalism and raised widespread Sunni fears of a "Shi'a Crescent" stretching from Iran to Lebanon – Bin Ladin appears to be making some progress (almost in spite of himself) towards his strategic objective of dividing the Western world from Sunni Islam.

So, did we play right into bin Laden's plans, or are we just still working with him?

Obviously, there are some stinky fish here.

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