On to Iran

It appears that the International Atomic Energy Agency is at least allowing for the possibility that documents allegedly found on a laptop some years ago --but discounted by the US Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency as of dubious provenance and incompatible with other intelligence gathered in Iran -- point to a nuclear weapons program that no one has been able to locate. Some close observers have concluded that the laptop documents are forgeries.

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The UN inspectors have a right to be frustrated with Iran, which has allowed inspections of its Natanz nuclear enrichment site, but which has not been completely transparent or adhered to the letter of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. But the sum of those frustrations does not point to a nuclear weapons program, unlike the disputed laptop documents. In statements to the press this fall, US intelligence officials have said that they stand behind the conclusions first reached in 2007, that Iran has no nuclear weapons program.

  Juan Cole

And what's the likelihood that the IAEA will make a finding that the laptop docs are believable? Pretty good, I'd say, now that Baradei has been replaced as the head of that agency by US-backed Yukiya Amano.

Russia's General of the Army Nikolay Makarov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation [said] the Russian military is taking steps to forestall [...] an American strike on Iran.

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The less potentially catastrophic path, tougher United Nations Security Council sanctions [depends] on Russia and China going along.

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Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was in Moscow earlier this week calling for 'crippling sanctions on Iran.

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[Russia's] deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, [...] said, according to Xinhua, "The term 'crippling sanctions' on Iran is totally unacceptable to us. The sanctions should aim at strengthening the regime of non- proliferation . . . We certainly cannot talk about sanctions that could be interpreted as punishment on the whole country and its people for some actions or inaction . . . "

Well, that's very un-American.

Those who have argued that Russia's increasing willingness to acquiesce in tougher UNSC sanctions might influence China to go along, too, should rethink. Russia doesn't seem all that aboard with a brutal sanctions regime. China not only has its own reasons not to want its own deals with Iran to be declared illegal, but its leaders doubt Iran has the capacity to construct a nuclear warhead anytime soon.

Doesn't matter. We are ready and spoiling for Armageddon. How can Russia and China get in the way of that?