The United States and Britain are drawing up plans to withdraw the majority of their troops from Iraq by the middle of next year, according to a secret memo written for British Prime Minister Tony Blair by Defense Secretary John Reid.
The paper, which is marked "Secret -- UK Eyes Only," said "emerging U.S. plans assume that 14 out of 18 provinces could be handed over to Iraqi control by early 2006," allowing a reduction in overall U.S.-led forces in Iraq to 66,000 troops. The troop level is now at about 160,000, including 138,000 American troops, according to a military spokesman in Baghdad.
I'm thinking that the "leaked" timetable might have been the opening offer in a covert round of haggling with the Iraqi insurgents -- the goal being not a peace treaty (who would sign it?) but a "decent interval," or at least a breathing space, that would allow the Pentagon to draw down its forces in Iraq without triggering a complete descent into anarchy and civil war.
If you think about it, it makes a certain amount of sense. What other way could such an offer be communicated to the various factions and gangs in the Iraqi insurgency, in a way that would be accepted as genuine? How else could the administration (and their faithful sidekicks, the Brits) control the timing and content of the message, while leaving themselves room to walk away if the offer is spurned?
Most importantly: How else do you negotiate with the terrorists, without suffering the immense humiliation and demoralization of being seen to publicly negotiate with the terrorists?
OK, so I've been reading too many John LeCarre novels. Still, the timing of this leak is otherwise a bit puzzling -- after the British election, when it might have done some immediate good for Blair, and well in advance of the 2006 congressional campaign season, when it would do the most good for the Cheneyites.
Call me paranoid, but my hypothesis still sounds reasonable to me. However, if the leak really was an offer, the insurgents may have already mailed back their reply. And it looks like the two sides are still pretty far apart:
BAGHDAD—We woke today to the muted sounds of thumps and booms. One big one, followed by a smaller one. Then mortars flew over our home. It was another attack on the Green Zone . . .
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