NIC hates America

LANGLEY, Va.—And now, a look into the future: Al Qaeda, out; murky and scattered new terror cells, in. Hollywood, out; India's "Bollywood" in. America as sole superpower, out; China and India as world players, in.

[...]

The unclassified forecasts offer a range of scenarios about the world 15 years on. Officials caution they are not meant to be predictions certain to come true but rather long-term outlooks designed to stimulate debate.

Al Qaeda was never more than a scare word for U.S. warhawks. Murky and scattered terror cells was all it ever was. But they're sure right about the loss of superpowerdom. China, I think will get its turn.

The council predicts an emergence of new global players — almost certainly China and India — but whether these new players fit into the world co-operatively or competitively remains an important uncertainty for the U.S.

[National Intelligence Council] vice-chairman David Gordon said the changes ahead could be "a very bumpy ride."

I'd say there's a real good possibility for that.

And I'd also say that the new players are competitive. All players are competitive. But the biggest non-cooperator is not China or India, but the U.S. In all the global treaties and talks, the U.S. often stands alone defiantly throwing her weight around.

Before you get too worried about what the council has come up with, however, consider its further analysis:

It predicts democratic progress in key Middle Eastern countries, including Iraq and Afghanistan, which may be an example for Muslim and Arab states still ruled by repressive regimes.

If by progress they mean wholesale destruction, then maybe. And I'm sure other "repressive regimes" have not failed to take note of the "example" being set in those two countries.