A picture is worth...

As soon as Bush takes the reins, the line plummets. I think that is far and away his greatest accomplishment. So far, so fast.

I won't mention the opposite trend in the previous eight-year presidency.

The administration said yesterday it will need about $80 billion more to pay for Iraq and Afghanistan, pushing the total military and reconstruction cost beyond $300 billion.
  Tucson Citizen article

But, to borrow a phrase from the Worst President Ever, they're just guessing. And it's not like that'll be the end of it, either.

The CBO deficit estimate doesn't include at least $350 million in emergency aid the administration pledged for relief efforts after last month's tsunami in southern Asia.

It also omits two of Bush's domestic priorities: adding private investment accounts to Social Security and extending tax cuts, which could add several trillion dollars to the long-term deficit.

Trillion? So how's that projected line rising?

The release of the record deficit figures also may allow the White House to boast if this year's actual shortfall turns out to be lower than the estimate, as was the case last year.

Robert Reischauer, president of the Washington-based Urban Institute and former director of the Congressional Budget Office, suggested the White House is setting itself up to "overestimate and then gloat that the deficit is lower than projected, acting as if the mis-estimates represent a true deficit reduction.''
  Bloomberg article

You know, they do that at the University, too. They threaten the staff once a year with terrible budget cuts and layoffs, and then when the time comes around to do it, they say, "Great news!" We don't have to fire anybody!" And, even though nobody gets raises, or they get enough of a raise to cover the increase in their medical insurance costs, they're all happy with the good news. Simpletons.

The White House's projected deficit is bigger than the record $412 billion shortfall last year and almost $100 billion higher than the gap the administration anticipated six months ago. The new prediction is also greater than the $331 billion the administration anticipated for fiscal year 2005 last July and the $364 billion it projected in last year's budget.

[...]

The CBO's deficit estimate said the deficit would total $855 billion over the next 10 years. That estimate doesn't include the costs for Bush's proposal to allow younger workers to invest part of their Social Security taxes in private accounts. Bush's plan may increase the deficit by $1 trillion to $2 trillion over a decade, according to the CBO.

If you add in Social Security and extending tax provisions "you are looking at deficits in the $400 billion to $500 billion range every year into the next decade rather than the deficit being cut in half,'' said Stanley Collender, an author on budget issues and senior vice president at Financial Dynamics Inc., a Washington consulting firm.

All I can tell you is, those are some pretty big numbers.

Update 6:40 pm: Another look at the budget deficit courtesy The Poor Man (who has a whole new, fresh look, by the way - and thank god those mullet chops are gone)...

But, first things first.