I'd start with the population census of Iraq and subtract the relatively small number of people vying for a position in the new puppet regime.John D. Negroponte, the American ambassador to Iraq, said he was confident that "elections can and will be conducted successfully." But acknowledged that there was no sign the vote would quell the insurgency or that the Americans have any real knowledge of how many people have joined guerilla ranks."I'm not sure anybody has a handle on the size of the insurgency," Mr. Negroponte said at a luncheon today with reporters. "I'm reluctant to put a number on the size of the insurgency."
NY Times article
And voting will preclude civil war? At any rate, they may figure treason is better than death, which they're threatened with if they do vote. Just guessing.Mr. Naquib, the interior minister, said that from the beginning there had been a conspiracy to undermine the reformulation of Iraq and that it may only get worse."Certain religious and political groups - Iraqis, but helped by others - are trying to fragment this country," he said. "It's treason if you don't vote because it will arouse a civil war."
That's Falluja to anybody who wants to know.Today, the insurgency ground on, with an Iraqi Army officer assassinated in Basra and a suicide bomber striking the Baghdad political headquarters of one of the most popular Shiite political parties.[...]
Also today, a videotape surfaced showing eight Chinese construction workers held hostage by gunmen in the latest episode of targeted abductions.
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Elsewhere, an American died in fighting in the Sunni-dominated Anbar Province, west of Baghdad, the military said today.
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