Friday, January 04, 2008

Iowa Caucus Tidbits

A few trends that might actually be clues to the 2008 race:

1) Democrats turned out 2 to 1 in numbers over Republicans

2) 60% of the Republican voters were Evangelical Christians, twice the number in 2004

3) First-time caucus voters accounted for 56%, 11% higher than 2004, and the majority of whom voted for Obama

4) Of Democratic voters alone, 56% were woman, just 30% of whom voted for the female candidate (Hillary didn't even come in 2d, she was 3d, behind Obama and Edwards)

5) Romney's big spending didn't translate into votes

6) Biden and Dodd have dropped out of the race

7) Giuliani dropped out of the picture, but presumably not out of the race

Tuesday in New Hampshire may be another story.

Trend number 1 might be the most telling for the final outcome in November. The situation is still very flawed, however, and most egregiously in that the person who wins the highest percentage of support can still become president with(much) less than a majority of support. Until we switch to a sensible voting method like instant run-off, that will remain the case.

Other caucus trends are broken down at Politico here.


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