2008

Here's my prediction for November, and I won't mention it again or change it:

For all the debating and reporting, and despite the Iowa Caucus, I think the reality of who takes the Oval Office next January will depend upon one thing: who the Democratic Party nominates to run. If they nominate any white male, the next president will be a Democrat. If they nominate either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, there will be a huge surge of "Middle-America" voters, who might otherwise sit this one out, going to the polls simply to vote against the Democratic nominee, and they'll prefer any Republican (or perhaps independent) candidate, as long as he's white. There will be Democrats voting Republican. This country has not gotten less prejudiced against dark skin over the past eight years, folks. Nor has it moved away from objectifying its women and rewarding ditzy-acting, sexy, large-breasted blondes for nothing more than looking "hot" and acting stupid. We've gone from the 50s to the 60s and backlashed to the 20s.

The possibility that might make this conclusion wrong is if Obama's nomination drew a mammoth surge of urban (white) youth voters who otherwise don't pay any attention to politics. Okay, I just talked myself out of that possibility. Won't happen.

Of course, I've been wrong before. We'll see.