I Said Trouble, With a Capital T

According to Dawn News, a private TV channel, more than 30,000 troops have entered South Waziristan and are being supported by aerial strikes. Four soldiers were killed and 12 injured in initial clashes, while nine militants were killed.

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A civilian exodus of the area is ongoing, and more than 200,000 are believed to have fled their homes since August.

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The operation in the harsh, mountainous terrain is expected to take several months to complete. Rifaat Hussain, a security analyst at the Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad, says the Army can expect to encounter up to 30,000 militiamen and up to 1,000 suicide bombers.

He notes that the Army’s task will be challenging. “The Army faces three major disadvantages: This is the Mehsud stronghold and their home turf, the Taliban can expect the assistance of the local public, and they have a short supply line from across the border from the Afghan Taliban,” Dr. Hussain says.

The Pakistan Army entered South Waziristan in February 2005. But after early gains, it negotiated a peace deal with militants that quickly fell apart. A second operation in February 2008 was humiliatingly called off after troops were surrounded in Ladha Fort in the town of Makeen.

  Christian Science Monitor

The risk seems even worse when you consider the past week. And the fact that Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal that needs to be protected.

A week of terrorist strikes across Pakistan, capped by a stunning assault on army headquarters, show the Taliban have rebounded and appear determined to shake the nation's resolve as the military plans for an offensive against the group's stronghold on the Afghan border.

The 22-hour attack on Pakistan's "Pentagon" in the city of Rawalpindi, which ended with 20 dead Sunday, was the third terrorist attack in a week to shake this nuclear-armed nation. It demonstrated the militants' renewed strength since their leader was killed by a U.S. missile strike in August and military operations against their bases.

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Security at army headquarters did not prevent a team of 10 gunmen in fatigues from launching a frontal assault on the very core of the country's most powerful institution Saturday morning, setting off a gunbattle and hostage drama that ended a day later after a commando raid.

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The weekend strike was a stunning finale to a week of attacks that highlighted the militants' ability to strike a range of targets in different cities, seemingly at will.

On Monday, a suicide bomber dressed as a paramilitary police officer blew himself up inside a heavily guarded U.N. aid agency in the heart of the capital, Islamabad. On Friday, a suspected militant detonated an explosives-laden car in the middle of a busy market in the northwestern city of Peshawar, killing 53 people.

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A police intelligence report from July obtained by The Associated Press on Saturday warned that members of the Taliban along with the Punjab-based Jaish-e-Mohammed were planning to attack army headquarters after disguising themselves as soldiers.

  NPR

Good intelligence. Too bad the security wasn’t as good.

Army headquarters, Islamabad - the nation's capitol, Peshawar - a regional capitol city - I think these guys are serious.

And what happens when security at the nuclear arsenal fails to prevent an assault?

"They are well-organized, and if the army takes action, they are able to hit back," former intelligence chief Jawed Ashraf Qazi said.

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Qazi estimated 6,000 battle-hardened Uzbek fighters are waiting in the mountains, along with thousand of local fighters from the Mehsud tribe of warriors with years of experience fighting the U.S. and Pakistan.